Tuesday, January 15, 2008

NFC +13.5 -120

Many sportsbooks are offering the NFC +13.5 -120. This is a pretty good bet.

-125 juice has a breakeven rate of 55.56%

Crockpot put up these numbers for NFL futures currently. They seem pretty accurate to me.

Team Conf SB
NE 87.0 73.2
SD 13.0 8.7

GB 71.8 14.0
NYG 28.2 4.1

Since the chance of winning the SB is:

(Win % of Conf Game) * (Win % of Superbowl) = SB Future Odds %

We can calculate the chance they win the Superbowl if they get there by dividing the SB future percent by the conference win percent.

I come up with

NE 84.1
SD 66.9
GB 19.5
NYG 14.5

I used a tool to convert the win % to a fair point spread for the AFC teams in the superbowl. I came up with

NE -10 -116
SD -5 -105

I then weighted the likelihood each team would make it to the SB and the spread if they do to get an average spread for the AFC vs NFC

(-10 * .87) + (-5 * .13) = -9.35 -110 AFC (82% chance of winning)

Since the NFC is +13.5 we gain the 10,11,12,13 which have these push rates

10 – 5.12%
11 – 2.19%
12 – 1.01%
13-– 2.64%
For a total of 10.96%

I put in the NFC at +13.5 -125 with an 18% chance of winning into an NFL point spread value calculator. It came back with:

Point Spread +13.5
Cover % 61.51%
American Odds -160
Expected Value 10.77%

There is a margin of error because of the push rate because of the sample size. There is also some error in converting a win percent into a spread also because of the sample size. This margin of error is pretty small and this bet is still pretty good.

The best scenario for this bet would be the chargers vs the packers where the packers would probably be small underdogs.

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