They have been running Kiper's first round mock draft across the bottom of espn. I copied it down:
Kiper
1 Miami Dolphins - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
2. St. Louis Rams - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
4. Oakland Raiders - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
7. New England Patriots (via San Francisco) - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
8. Baltimore Ravens - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
10. New Orleans Saints - Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina
11. Buffalo Bills - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
12. Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
13. Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
14. Chicago Bears – Sam Baker, OT, USC
15. Detroit Lions – Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
16. Arizona Cardinals - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
17. Minnesota Vikings - DeSean Jackson, WR, California
18. Houston Texans - Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
21. Washington Redskins - Calias Campbell, DE, Miami
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Chilo Rachal, OG, USC
24. Tennessee Titans - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
25. Seattle Seahawks - Fred Davis, TE, USC
26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
27. San Diego Chargers - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
28. Dallas Cowboys - Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - James Hardy, WR, Indiana
30. Green Bay Packers - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
31. New York Giants – Dan Conner, OLB, Penn State
Thursday, January 24, 2008
NFL Mock Draft 2008
1. Miami Dolphins - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
3. Atlanta Falcons - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
4. Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
7. New England Patriots (via San Francisco) - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
8. Baltimore Ravens - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
10. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
11. Buffalo Bills - DeSean Jackson, WR, California
12. Denver Broncos - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
13. Carolina Panthers - Sam Baker, OT, USC
14. Chicago Bears – Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
15. Detroit Lions – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
16. Arizona Cardinals - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
17. Minnesota Vikings - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
18. Houston Texans - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
21. Washington Redskins - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
24. Tennessee Titans - Early Doucet, WR, LSU
25. Seattle Seahawks - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
26. Jacksonville Jaguars –Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
27. San Diego Chargers - Frank Okam, DT, Texas
28. Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - James Hardy, WR, Indiana
30. Green Bay Packers - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
31. New York Giants – Dan Conner, OLB, Penn State
2. St. Louis Rams - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
3. Atlanta Falcons - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
4. Oakland Raiders - Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
5. Kansas City Chiefs - Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
6. New York Jets - Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
7. New England Patriots (via San Francisco) - Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
8. Baltimore Ravens - Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
9. Cincinnati Bengals - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
10. New Orleans Saints - Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
11. Buffalo Bills - DeSean Jackson, WR, California
12. Denver Broncos - Keith Rivers, LB, USC
13. Carolina Panthers - Sam Baker, OT, USC
14. Chicago Bears – Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
15. Detroit Lions – Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
16. Arizona Cardinals - Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
17. Minnesota Vikings - Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
18. Houston Texans - Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona
19. Philadelphia Eagles - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
21. Washington Redskins - Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) - Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
23. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
24. Tennessee Titans - Early Doucet, WR, LSU
25. Seattle Seahawks - Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
26. Jacksonville Jaguars –Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
27. San Diego Chargers - Frank Okam, DT, Texas
28. Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
29. San Francisco (from Indianapolis) - James Hardy, WR, Indiana
30. Green Bay Packers - Reggie Smith, CB, Oklahoma
31. New York Giants – Dan Conner, OLB, Penn State
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
NFC +13.5 -120
Many sportsbooks are offering the NFC +13.5 -120. This is a pretty good bet.
-125 juice has a breakeven rate of 55.56%
Crockpot put up these numbers for NFL futures currently. They seem pretty accurate to me.
Team Conf SB
NE 87.0 73.2
SD 13.0 8.7
GB 71.8 14.0
NYG 28.2 4.1
Since the chance of winning the SB is:
(Win % of Conf Game) * (Win % of Superbowl) = SB Future Odds %
We can calculate the chance they win the Superbowl if they get there by dividing the SB future percent by the conference win percent.
I come up with
NE 84.1
SD 66.9
GB 19.5
NYG 14.5
I used a tool to convert the win % to a fair point spread for the AFC teams in the superbowl. I came up with
NE -10 -116
SD -5 -105
I then weighted the likelihood each team would make it to the SB and the spread if they do to get an average spread for the AFC vs NFC
(-10 * .87) + (-5 * .13) = -9.35 -110 AFC (82% chance of winning)
Since the NFC is +13.5 we gain the 10,11,12,13 which have these push rates
10 – 5.12%
11 – 2.19%
12 – 1.01%
13-– 2.64%
For a total of 10.96%
I put in the NFC at +13.5 -125 with an 18% chance of winning into an NFL point spread value calculator. It came back with:
Point Spread +13.5
Cover % 61.51%
American Odds -160
Expected Value 10.77%
There is a margin of error because of the push rate because of the sample size. There is also some error in converting a win percent into a spread also because of the sample size. This margin of error is pretty small and this bet is still pretty good.
The best scenario for this bet would be the chargers vs the packers where the packers would probably be small underdogs.
-125 juice has a breakeven rate of 55.56%
Crockpot put up these numbers for NFL futures currently. They seem pretty accurate to me.
Team Conf SB
NE 87.0 73.2
SD 13.0 8.7
GB 71.8 14.0
NYG 28.2 4.1
Since the chance of winning the SB is:
(Win % of Conf Game) * (Win % of Superbowl) = SB Future Odds %
We can calculate the chance they win the Superbowl if they get there by dividing the SB future percent by the conference win percent.
I come up with
NE 84.1
SD 66.9
GB 19.5
NYG 14.5
I used a tool to convert the win % to a fair point spread for the AFC teams in the superbowl. I came up with
NE -10 -116
SD -5 -105
I then weighted the likelihood each team would make it to the SB and the spread if they do to get an average spread for the AFC vs NFC
(-10 * .87) + (-5 * .13) = -9.35 -110 AFC (82% chance of winning)
Since the NFC is +13.5 we gain the 10,11,12,13 which have these push rates
10 – 5.12%
11 – 2.19%
12 – 1.01%
13-– 2.64%
For a total of 10.96%
I put in the NFC at +13.5 -125 with an 18% chance of winning into an NFL point spread value calculator. It came back with:
Point Spread +13.5
Cover % 61.51%
American Odds -160
Expected Value 10.77%
There is a margin of error because of the push rate because of the sample size. There is also some error in converting a win percent into a spread also because of the sample size. This margin of error is pretty small and this bet is still pretty good.
The best scenario for this bet would be the chargers vs the packers where the packers would probably be small underdogs.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
NFL Playoff Odds
I looked at the NFL future odds at pinnacle today and compared them to some handicapped values. These odds are to win the conference or superbowl. I'll first list pinnacle's odds and then compare them to a set of handicapped numbers. I will add a second set of handicapped numbers to this post in the future.
Pinnacle
Handicapper #1
If you go by these numbers you can see some value on Dallas and Indy to win the Superbowl. The biggest difference between the two sets are teams like Tennessee and Washington to win their respective conference or the superbowl. The odds are way in favor of the sportsbook on the lower seeds. If you want to bet these teams to win the superbowl you would be better off betting the individual moneylines for each game. You will get much better odds that way.
Pinnacle
| Team | Conference | Superbowl |
| NE | -214 | -147 |
| Ind | +365 | +575 |
| SD | +1275 | +1867 |
| Pit | +2500 | +5000 |
| Jax | +1550 | +1900 |
| Ten | +6000 | +11250 |
| Dal | -126 | +700 |
| GB | +250 | +950 |
| Sea | +1150 | +5000 |
| TB | +1600 | +7500 |
| NYG | +1800 | +7000 |
| Was | +1600 | +6613 |
Handicapper #1
| Team | Conference | Superbowl |
| NE | -189 | -119 |
| Ind | +350 | +529 |
| SD | +1654 | +2603 |
| Pit | +4067 | +6567 |
| Jax | +2603 | +3900 |
| Ten | +16567 | +49900 |
| Dal | -137 | +646 |
| GB | +312 | +1941 |
| Sea | +1199 | +6567 |
| TB | +2226 | +14186 |
| NYG | +2678 | +14354 |
| Was | +4248 | +24900 |
If you go by these numbers you can see some value on Dallas and Indy to win the Superbowl. The biggest difference between the two sets are teams like Tennessee and Washington to win their respective conference or the superbowl. The odds are way in favor of the sportsbook on the lower seeds. If you want to bet these teams to win the superbowl you would be better off betting the individual moneylines for each game. You will get much better odds that way.
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